There is a 50/50 chance AI will take your job

There is a 50/50 chance AI will take your job

There is a 50/50 chance AI will take your job
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Imagine logging into your work computer to find that half of your daily tasks have been seamlessly automated overnight. Your email responses are drafted, your data is analyzed, and your reports are summarized — all by artificial intelligence. Science fiction? 

Far from it. A study published in Science in June, titled “GPTs are GPTs: Labor market impact potential of LLMs,” suggests this scenario is not just possible — it is on the horizon for nearly half of us.

Researchers from OpenAI, the Centre for the Governance of AI, and the Wharton School examined our AI-driven near future, and the view is startling. Their findings? About 1.8 percent of jobs could see over half their tasks affected by AI using current large language models. These include OpenAI, ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude and Google’s Gemini, using simple chatbot interfaces. 

But here is the kicker: When accounting for likely near-term software developments that complement LLM capabilities, this jumps to a staggering 46 percent. These developments include specialized software that can interface between LLMs and domain-specific tools, AI-powered coding assistants to generate and debug complex software, and advanced data analysis tools that interpret and visualize large datasets based on natural language prompts.

This is not about some far-off future or hypothetical breakthroughs. We are discussing integrating existing AI technologies with software developments already in progress or on the immediate horizon. The scale of potential disruption is not just possible — it is probable.

Surprisingly, it is not always the jobs you might expect that are most exposed. The study found that occupations requiring extensive preparation — think lawyers, pharmacists and database administrators — are more exposed to AI than those with lower entry barriers. This challenges the common perception that AI primarily threatens people in low-skilled jobs.

However, “exposure” does not necessarily mean job losses. The study emphasizes that AI’s impact is more about transformation than replacement. When we say a job is “exposed” to AI, we mean that many tasks within that job may be augmented or automated. This often leads to shifts in job roles rather than outright elimination. The critical question is how quickly these changes will occur and how prepared we are to adapt.

For workers, the imperative is clear: Adaptability is crucial. Regardless of your field, developing skills that complement AI rather than compete with it will be essential. This might involve focusing on uniquely human capabilities like creativity, emotional intelligence, and complex problem-solving.

How we develop, deploy, and regulate AI technologies in the immediate future will shape their impact on the workforce.

Mohammed A. Alqarni

Businesses need to start planning for an AI-augmented workforce now, not in some distant future. This does not just mean adopting new technologies but rethinking entire business processes and job roles to leverage the strengths of humans and AI.

Policymakers face an urgent challenge. The study calls for immediate public investment in tracking AI adoption and its labor market impacts. We need robust policies to ensure the benefits of AI are broadly distributed and to support workers through what could be rapid transitions. This might include reforms in education, upskilling and reskilling programs, and social safety nets.

The “50/50” nature of AI’s potential impact on jobs underscores a crucial point: While significant disruption appears likely, the specific outcomes are not predetermined. How we develop, deploy, and regulate AI technologies in the immediate future will shape their impact on the workforce. We have the power — and the responsibility — to influence this future, starting right now.

As millions of us face this looming transformation in our working lives, it is clear that we need to rethink the future of work fundamentally. This is not just about adapting to AI — it is about reimagining what work means in an AI-augmented world. We must ask ourselves: How can we redefine productivity and value creation? What new forms of work might emerge? How can we ensure that the benefits of AI are distributed equitably across society?

This rethinking needs to happen at all levels. Individuals should consider how their roles might evolve and what skills they will need in an AI-rich environment. Companies must reevaluate their organizational structures and how they can best leverage human-AI collaboration. Policymakers and educators must overhaul our education and training systems to prepare people for this new world of work.

The question is not whether AI will change our jobs but how quickly and dramatically. Our challenge — and our opportunity — is to harness its imminent potential to create a more productive, equitable, and fulfilling world of work for all. This requires not just adaptation but a bold reimagining of “work” itself. The time for this rethinking is now before the change overtakes us. 

Let us seize this moment to shape a future of work that benefits everyone, putting human needs and aspirations at the center of our AI-augmented future.

Mohammed A. Alqarni is an academic and AI business consultant
 

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view

A gold mining town in Congo has become an mpox hot spot as a new strain spreads

A gold mining town in Congo has become an mpox hot spot as a new strain spreads
Updated 2 min 15 sec ago
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A gold mining town in Congo has become an mpox hot spot as a new strain spreads

A gold mining town in Congo has become an mpox hot spot as a new strain spreads
  • Mpox causes mostly mild symptoms like fever and body aches, but can trigger serious cases
  • Lack of funds, vaccines and information is making it difficult to stem the spread
KAMITUGA: Slumped on the ground over a mound of dirt, Divine Wisoba pulled weeds from her daughter’s grave. The 1-month-old died from mpox in eastern Congo in August, but Wisoba, 21, was too traumatized to attend the funeral.
In her first visit to the cemetery, she wept into her shirt for the child she lost and worried about the rest of her family. “When she was born, it was as if God had answered our prayers — we wanted a girl,” Wisoba said of little Maombi Katengey. “But our biggest joy was transformed into devastation.”
Her daughter is one of more than 6,000 people officials suspect have contracted the disease in South Kivu province, the epicenter of the world’s latest mpox outbreak, in what the World Health Organization has labeled a global health emergency. A new strain of the virus is spreading, largely through skin-to-skin contact, including but not limited to sex. A lack of funds, vaccines and information is making it difficult to stem the spread, according to alarmed disease experts.
Mpox — which causes mostly mild symptoms like fever and body aches, but can trigger serious cases with prominent blisters on the face, hands, chest and genitals — had been spreading mostly undetected for years in Africa, until a 2022 outbreak reached more than 70 countries. Globally, gay and bisexual men made up the vast majority of cases in that outbreak. But officials note mpox has long disproportionately affected children in Africa, and they say cases are now rising sharply among kids, pregnant women and other vulnerable groups, with many types of close contact responsible for the spread.
Health officials have zeroed in on Kamituga, a remote yet bustling gold mining town of some 300,000 people that attracts miners, sex workers and traders who are constantly on the move. Cases from other parts of eastern Congo can be traced back here, officials say, with the first originating in the nightclub scene.
Since this outbreak began, one year ago, nearly 1,000 people in Kamituga have been infected. Eight have died, half of them children.
Challenges on the ground
Last month, the World Health Organization said mpox outbreaks might be stopped in the next six months, with governments’ leadership and cooperation.
But in Kamituga, people say they face a starkly different reality.
There’s a daily average of five new cases at the general hospital, which is regularly near capacity. Overall in South Kivu, weekly new suspected cases have skyrocketed from about 12 in January to 600 in August, according to province health officials.
Even that’s likely an underestimate, they say, because of a lack of access to rural areas, the inability of many residents to seek care, and Kamituga’s transient nature.
Locals say they simply don’t have enough information about mpox.
Before her daughter got sick, Wisoba said, she was infected herself but didn’t know it.
Painful lesions emerged around her genitals, making walking difficult. She thought she had a common sexually transmitted infection and sought medicine at a pharmacy. Days later, she went to the hospital with her newborn and was diagnosed with mpox. She recovered, but her daughter developed lesions on her foot.
Nearly a week later, Maombi died at the same hospital that treated her mother.
Wisoba said she didn’t know about mpox until she got it. She wants the government to invest more in teaching people protective measures.
Local officials can’t reach areas more than a few miles outside Kamituga to track suspected cases or inform residents. They broadcast radio messages but say that doesn’t reach far enough.
Kasindi Mwenyelwata goes door to door describing how to detect mpox — looking for fevers, aches or lesions. But the 42-year-old community leader said a lack of money means he doesn’t have the right materials, such as posters showing images of patients, which he finds more powerful than words.
ALIMA, one of the few aid groups working on mpox in Kamituga, lacks funds to set up programs or clinics that would reach some 150,000 people, with its budget set to run out at year’s end, according to program coordinator Dr. Dally Muamba.
If support keeps waning and mpox spreads, he said, “there will be an impact on the economy, people will stop coming to the area as the epidemic takes its toll. ... And as the disease grows, will resources follow?”
The vaccine vacuum
Health experts agree: What’s needed most are vaccines — even if they go only to adults, under emergency approval in Congo.
None has arrived in Kamituga, though it’s a priority city in South Kivu, officials said. It’s unclear when or how they will. The main road into town is unpaved — barely passable by car during the ongoing rainy season.
Once they make it here, it’s unclear whether supply will meet demand for those who are at greatest risk and first in line: health staff, sex workers, miners and motorcycle taxi drivers.
Congo’s government has budgeted more than $190 million for its initial mpox response, which includes the purchase of 3 million vaccine doses, according to a draft national mpox plan, widely circulating among health experts and aid groups this month and seen by The Associated Press. But so far, just 250,000 doses have arrived in Congo and the government’s given only $10 million, according to the finance ministry.
Most people with mild cases recover in less than two weeks. But lesions can get infected, and children or immunocompromised people are more prone to severe cases.
Doctors can ensure lesions are clean and give pain medication or antibiotics for secondary infections such as sepsis.
But those who recover can get the virus again.
A new variant, a lack of understanding
Experts say a lack of resources and knowledge about the new strain makes it difficult to advise people on protecting themselves. An internal report circulated among aid groups and agencies and seen by AP labeled confidence in the available information about mpox in eastern Congo and neighboring countries low.
While the variant is known to be more easily transmissible through sex, it’s unclear how long the virus remains in the system. Doctors tell recovered patients to abstain from sex for three months, but acknowledge the number’s largely arbitrary.
“Studies haven’t clarified if you’re still contagious or not ... if you can or can’t have sex with your wife,” said Dr. Steven Bilembo, of Kamituga’s general hospital.
Doctors say they’re seeing cases they simply don’t understand, such as pregnant women losing babies. Of 32 pregnant women infected since January, nearly half lost the baby through miscarriage or stillbirth, hospital statistics show.
Alice Neema was among them. From the hospital’s isolation ward, she told AP she’d noticed lesions around her genitals and a fever — but didn’t have enough money to travel the 30 miles (50 kilometers) on motorbike for help in time. She miscarried after her diagnosis.
As information trickles in, locals say fear spreads alongside the new strain.
Diego Nyago said he’d brought his 2-year-old son, Emile, to the hospital for circumcision when he developed a fever and lepasions.
It was mpox — and today, Nyago is grateful he was already at the hospital.
“I didn’t believe that children could catch this disease,” he said as doctors gently poured water over the boy to bring his temperature down. “Some children die quickly, because their families aren’t informed.
“Those who die are the ones who stay at home.”

Blinken subpoenaed to appear next week before House committee over Afghanistan

Blinken subpoenaed to appear next week before House committee over Afghanistan
Updated 24 min 12 sec ago
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Blinken subpoenaed to appear next week before House committee over Afghanistan

Blinken subpoenaed to appear next week before House committee over Afghanistan
  • The committee had previously wanted Blinken to appear today but was told he was not available on September 19
  • If Secretary Blinken fails to appear now, he can be held in contempt of Congress for violating a duly issued subpoena

WASHINGTON: The US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee subpoenaed Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday to appear before it on Sept. 24 over the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.
“If Secretary Blinken fails to appear, the chairman will proceed instead with a full committee markup of a report recommending the US House of Representatives find Secretary Blinken in contempt of Congress for violating a duly issued subpoena,” according to a statement from the committee.
The committee had previously wanted Blinken to appear on Sept. 19. The State Department said earlier this month that Blinken was not available to testify on the dates proposed by the committee, but has proposed “reasonable alternatives.”
The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Reuters on Wednesday.
The Republican-led committee has been investigating the deadly and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan for years and an appearance next week before lawmakers by Blinken over a heavily politicized issue would come just weeks before the Nov. 5 election.
Blinken has testified before Congress on Afghanistan more than 14 times, including four times before the committee, and the State Department has provided the committee with nearly 20,000 pages of records, multiple high-level briefings and transcribed interviews, a department spokesperson said earlier in September.


Bangladesh win toss, bowl against India in first Test

Bangladesh win toss, bowl against India in first Test
Updated 29 min 30 sec ago
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Bangladesh win toss, bowl against India in first Test

Bangladesh win toss, bowl against India in first Test
  • Bangladesh are fresh from a historic 2-0 Test sweep in Pakistan but have never beaten India in 13 attempts
  • India, led by Rohit Sharma, are looking to extend their lead at the top of the World Test Championship rankings

CHENNAI, India: Bangladesh skipper Najmul Hossain Shanto won the toss and elected to field against India in an overcast Chennai on Thursday in the first of two Tests.
Bangladesh are fresh from a historic 2-0 Test sweep in Pakistan but they have never beaten India in 13 attempts.
The visitors have included three seamers including new pace sensation Nahid Rana, who bowled at speeds of over 146 kph (90 mph)in Pakistan.
“There is moisture on the wicket and we will like to use the conditions,” Najmul said at the toss.
“It looks hard and will be good for the seamers in the first session.”
India, led by Rohit Sharma, are looking to extend their lead at the top of the World Test Championship rankings as they begin a fresh Test season of 10 matches.
Wicketkeeper Rishabh Pant returns to the Test team for the first time since he nearly died in a car crash in 2022.
Virat Kohli is also back for his first Test since facing South Africa at Cape Town in January, having missed India’s 4-1 home series win against England for the birth of his second child.
Rohit said he would also have fielded first had he won the toss, admitting the “conditions will be challenging.”
India have included three fast bowlers and two spinners, Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja.
It is a first Test for new India coach Gautam Gambhir, who took over from Rahul Dravid, who ended his tenure by winning the T20 World Cup in June.
Teams
India: Rohit Sharma (capt), Yashasvi Jaiswal, Shubman Gill, KL Rahul, Virat Kohli, Rishabh Pant (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin, Jasprit Bumrah, Akash Deep, Mohammed Siraj.
Bangladesh: Najmul Hossain Shanto (capt), Shadman Islam, Zakir Hasan, Mominul Haque, Mushfiqur Rahim, Shakib Al Hasan, Litton Das (wk), Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Hasan Mahmud, Nahid Rana, Taskin Ahmed.
Umpires: Richard Kettleborough (ENG), Rod Tucker (AUS)
TV Umpire: Chris Brown (NZL)
Match Referee: Jeff Crowe (NZL)


UN advisory body makes seven recommendations for governing AI

UN advisory body makes seven recommendations for governing AI
Updated 30 min 9 sec ago
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UN advisory body makes seven recommendations for governing AI

UN advisory body makes seven recommendations for governing AI
  • Only a handful of countries have created laws to govern the spread of AI tools
  • The UN last year created a 39-member advisory body to address issues in the international governance of AI

STOCKHOLM: An artificial-intelligence advisory body at the United Nations on Thursday released its final report proposing seven recommendations to address AI-related risks and gaps in governance.
The UN last year created a 39-member advisory body to address issues in the international governance of AI. The recommendations will be discussed during a UN summit held in September.
The advisory body called for the establishment of a panel to provide impartial and reliable scientific knowledge about AI and address information asymmetries between AI labs and the rest of the world.
Since the release of Microsoft-backed OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, the use of AI has spread rapidly, raising concerns about fueling misinformation, fake news and infringement of copyrighted material.
Only a handful of countries have created laws to govern the spread of AI tools. The European Union has been ahead of the rest by passing a comprehensive AI Act compared with the United States’ approach of voluntary compliance while China has aimed to maintain social stability and state control.
The United States was among about 60 countries that endorsed a “blueprint for action” to govern responsible use of AI in the military on Sept. 10, while China did not support the legally non-binding document.
With the development of AI in the hands of a few multinational companies, there is a danger that the technology could be imposed on people without them having a say in how it is used, the UN said in a statement.
It also recommended a new policy dialogue on AI governance, creating an AI standards exchange and a global AI capacity development network to boost governance capacities.
Among other proposals, the UN wants a global AI fund to be established, which would address gaps in capacity and collaboration. It also advocates the formation of a global AI data framework to ensure transparency and accountability.
Finally, the UN report proposed setting up a small AI office to support and coordinate the implementation of these proposals.


20 killed, 450 injured in second wave of blasts in Lebanon

20 killed, 450 injured in second wave of blasts in Lebanon
Updated 43 min 30 sec ago
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20 killed, 450 injured in second wave of blasts in Lebanon

20 killed, 450 injured in second wave of blasts in Lebanon
  • Walkie-talkies, solar equipment targeted day after pagers blast, report says
  • New blasts hit a country thrown into confusion, anger after Tuesday’s bombings 

BEIRUT: Explosions in Beirut and other parts of Lebanon were apparently a second wave of detonations of electronic devices, state media said on Wednesday.
The report said walkie-talkies and even solar equipment were targeted a day after hundreds of pagers blew up.
At least 20 people were killed and 450 were wounded, the Health Ministry said.
A Hezbollah official told the Associated Press that walkie-talkies used by the group exploded.
Lebanon’s official news agency reported that solar energy systems exploded in homes in several areas of Beirut and southern Lebanon, wounding at least one girl.
The new blasts hit a country thrown into confusion and anger after Tuesday’s pager bombings, which appeared to be a complex Israeli attack targeting Hezbollah members that caused civilian casualties, too.
At least 12 people were killed, including two children, and about 2,800 people were wounded as hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded wherever they happened to be — in homes, cars, at grocery stores and in cafes.
Wednesday’s blasts caused fires, injuries and a state of hysteria because some of the devices were being carried by security personnel during the funeral ceremonies for the victims of the pager explosions on Tuesday.
Explosions were heard in the southern suburbs of Beirut and several areas in the south and the Bekaa Valley.
Many were injured outside hospitals where the wounded from Tuesday’s bombings were being treated. Several of the wounded were transferred to Baalbek hospitals. 
Some devices exploded with their carriers in front of the American University Hospital in Beirut. 
Four cars containing devices exploded in the town of Aabbassiyeh in the south, three people were injured when a device exploded in a car in Jdeidet Marjeyoun, and parked cars exploded in Nabatieh because there were wireless devices in them.
Ambulances rushed everywhere, and Hezbollah supporters went out on motorcycles searching for victims after abandoning all their communication devices. 
The Lebanese Army Command asked citizens “not to gather in places witnessing security incidents to make way for the arrival of medical teams.” 
According to initial information, the devices that exploded on Wednesday are Icom V82 models, bought in the deal for pagers last spring. 
Panic increased when information circulated on social media about the explosion of solar panels connected to Internet devices. There were also claims that computers exploded. 
A Hezbollah member in a video clip that showed a room with shrapnel damage, said: “This was because of the device’s battery. I removed it from the device and put it aside. Look what happened.”
Footage showed fires in residential apartments in the southern suburbs of Beirut and in the south, and casualties during funeral ceremonies after their devices exploded. 
The Axios website reported that “Israel blew up thousands of wireless communication devices used by Hezbollah elements in a second wave.” 
In the first wave of bombings, it appeared that small amounts of explosives had been hidden in the thousands of pagers delivered to Hezbollah and then remotely detonated.
The reports of further electronic devices exploding suggested even greater infiltration of boobytraps into Lebanon’s supply chain.
It also deepens concerns over the attacks in which hundreds of devices exploded in public areas, often with many bystanders, with no certainty of who was holding the rigged devices.